The Status enews editorials have had a bit of a piscatorial theme to them of late. Two weeks ago it was man eaters - sharks and crocodiles - last week it was decapods (prawns) and this week we pay homage to Paul, the soothsaying cephalopod, (Aurelius Octopuses), of World Cup Soccer tipping fame.
Paul is the sports betting equivalent of the investment world’s Warren Buffett, the Oracle of Omaha, who has amassed more personal wealth for himself and the devotees of his investment company, Berkshire Hathaway Inc, than any other investor in the history of the cosmos. In fact, if you had assiduously followed Buffet’s share tips over the past 44 years, you would have averaged annual growth of around 20% on your investment.
However, if you had had the foresight to follow the predictions of Paul, the psychic octopus, and placed a $10 bet on the outcome of the Australia v Germany game in the opening round of the World Cup, and then let your investment funds ride on Paul’s every divination thereafter, you would have achieved, assuming 2:1 odds on the outcome of every match, a total return of $2,560 or 25600%; a very handsome return on your original $10 investment indeed.
Unlike Warren, Paul the octopus really does know it all. The marine mystic ended World Cup 2010 with a perfect record of eight correct predictions. He correctly predicted Germany’s wins over Australia, Ghana, England and Argentina as well as the country’s losses to Serbia and Spain. He also predicted Germany’s win over Uruguay in the third-place playoff - and maintained his perfect record by tipping Spain in the final. In fact, he hasn’t got a single selection wrong since the 2008 European final!
Paul makes his tips by choosing between two transparent acrylic boxes, each containing a tasty morsel of food, lowered into his aquarium and marked with the flags of the competing teams. Whichever box Paul opens first is deemed to be his selection for the impending match. This is all televised before a live studio audience and Paul has been observed sitting on each of the boxes for up to 15 minutes, seemingly cogitating over the result before flipping the lid and burrowing into the box of his ordained team - and he’s never been wrong!
So what would you change if you knew the immediate future? Faced with knowledge of the future some people would still be unwilling or unable to change their circumstances. Take Paul, imprisoned in an aquarium in a German Zoo, if he truly could see the future, if he were aware that the lifespan of the average cephalopod is just three years, he would know at 2.5 years of age that his days of picking world cup winners are now at an end. But escape from the carnival of freaks is not an option for Paul - he is physically trapped, unable to take control of his own destiny, to make choices and act upon them.
Unfortunately, a lot of people traverse life in much the same way, their shackles being psychological rather than physical, where the need to conform and to be accepted is pivotal to the sense of self. Yet, the happiest people I have known are those who travel a path less trodden, who are masters of their own destiny rather than slaves to the system.
A wise man once said, yesterday is history, tomorrow is a mystery and today is a gift - that’s why they call it the present. Life isn’t so much about predicting the future as it is about what you are doing with it in the present that counts. Warren Buffet loves what he does, he searches for companies that he believes are undervalued by the market and then, he invests in them - simple really. There is no mystery in that; it’s all about discovery in the present that defines this Prophet. The future may well shower you with great material wealth but real riches come from doing something you truly love, well; the rest is just a sideshow.
Paul knows that his days are numbered, so are ours, the difference being that Paul can’t do anything about his situation. He’ll always be an eight legged curiosity, ensnared in a fish bowl, until pickled, grilled or turned into sashimi; not unlike the fate awaiting most of us really.
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Gary Hatwell
Executive Chairman
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